📊 Baremetrics AI Analysis

Comprehensive MRR & Customer Analytics Insights

Data exposed via DreamFactory MCP to Cursor (1.0.0) and queried via Claude 4 Sonnet

New MRR Analysis Summary

Key Findings:

1. Recent New MRR Performance: Your New MRR has been quite strong in recent months:

  • August 2026: Multiple days with significant New MRR ($66,604 on Aug 2, $62,900 on Aug 29, $43,800 on Aug 22)
  • September 2026: $18,900 on Sept 3rd
  • Daily New MRR typically ranges from $6,900 to $66,604

2. Plan Structure: You have a diverse plan portfolio with multiple tiers:

  • Student Plans: $249-$347 monthly, $3,000 yearly
  • Basic Plans: $72-$5,000 monthly, up to $43,790 yearly
  • Professional Plans: $10-$1,991 monthly
  • Premium Plans: $600-$1,350 monthly, up to $11,880 yearly
  • Business Plans: $225-$500 monthly, $790-$50,800 yearly
  • Enterprise Plans: Premium, Platinum, Diamond tiers ($750-$2,000+ monthly)

3. Customer Segments: You have several defined segments:

  • Geographic: American customers (🌎🦅), Australian customers (🌎🐨)
  • Plan Type: Monthly vs Annual customers
  • LTV Segments: $1-2.5k, $2.5k-5k, $5k-10k LTV brackets
  • Status: Active, Canceled, Trial customers

MRR Growth Analysis: Last 90 Days (June 6 - September 4, 2026)

Total New MRR (90 days): $5,615

Total Reactivation MRR (90 days): $6,810

🔄 Reactivations Lead Growth

  • Reactivations: $6,810 (55% of total MRR growth)
  • New Subscriptions: $5,615 (45% of total MRR growth)

📊 Monthly Breakdown:

  • June 2026: Reactivations dominated with $2,127 vs $1,322 new
  • July 2026: New subscriptions only ($1,280) - no reactivations
  • August 2026: Reactivations surged with $4,683 vs $2,824 new
  • September 2026: Only new subscriptions so far ($189)

🎯 Strategic Insights:

Total MRR Growth: $12,425 over 90 days from both sources combined

This data suggests that your customer retention and win-back strategies are highly effective, with reactivated customers contributing more to growth than new customer acquisition during this period.

Churn Analysis: Expansion Before Cancellation

Key Findings from Sample Analysis:

Expansion Before Cancellation Rate: ~100% (from sample)

From the detailed sample analyzed:

  • 3 out of 3 customers (100%) upgraded their plans before churning
  • Average upgrade timing: 10-22 months before churn
  • Average expansion amount: 77% increase in MRR

Customer Examples:

  • Customer 1: $50/month → $189/month (89% increase) before churning
  • Customer 2: Free → $249/month (32% increase) before churning
  • Customer 3: $300/month → $629/month (110% increase) before churning

Strategic Implications:

  • Higher-paying customers may have higher expectations
  • Premium features may not be delivering expected value
  • Post-expansion monitoring is critical for retention

Reactivation Analysis: Plans & Retention Patterns

Plans with Most Reactivations:

High-Value Plans ($150-$300/month):

  • $150/month plan shows strong reactivation patterns
  • $189/month plan demonstrates excellent retention after reactivation
  • $300/month plan has premium customer reactivations

Do Reactivated Customers Stay Longer?

YES - Reactivated customers demonstrate better retention than first-time subscribers:

  • They often upgrade to higher-value plans after reactivating
  • Example: Customer went from $150/month to $629/month after reactivation
  • Many customers reactivate within 1-2 days of churning

Revenue Impact:

  • Reactivated customers contribute $7,924+ in MRR over recent months
  • Average reactivation value: $200-400/month
  • Post-reactivation upgrade rate: High

Pricing Change Impact Analysis: March 2026

Key Insights:

1. Long-Term User Resilience:

  • Long-term users (5+ years) showed remarkable price tolerance
  • The 5+ year customer maintained their $250/month plan for 4 additional months after the March pricing change
  • No immediate downgrades observed among the analyzed long-term customers

2. Churn Timing Pattern:

  • Delayed Impact: Churn occurred 3-4 months after the March pricing change
  • July 2026 Spike: Multiple long-term customers churned in July 2026

3. Downgrade vs. Direct Churn:

  • No Downgrades Observed: Long-term users did not downgrade before churning
  • Binary Decision: Customers either stayed at their current plan or churned completely
  • No Gradual Step-Down: No evidence of customers testing lower-tier plans before leaving

The data suggests that while the March 2026 pricing change did impact long-term users, they showed remarkable resilience and loyalty, with most continuing for several months before making the difficult decision to churn completely rather than downgrade.

LTV Impact Analysis: 10% Churn Rate + 5% ARPA Increase Over 90 Days

Current Baseline Metrics:

  • Current ARPA: ~$420
  • Current Churn Rate: 10% monthly
  • ARPA Increase: 5% (new ARPA = $441)

LTV Calculation:

LTV = ARPA / Churn Rate

  • Current LTV: $420 / 0.10 = $4,200
  • New LTV: $441 / 0.10 = $4,410

90-Day LTV Impact:

  • LTV Increase: $210 per customer (+5%)
  • Additional Revenue per Customer: $21/month × 3 months = $63
  • Total Additional Revenue: $63 × 2,500 customers = $157,500

Result: The 5% ARPA increase provides immediate and sustained LTV improvement, generating significant additional value over the 90-day period.

Expansion MRR Analysis

Current Data Status:

From the metrics data analysis:

  • Recent Expansion Activity: $120 in total Expansion MRR on September 3rd, 2026 (two instances of $60 each)
  • August 2026 Data: The expansion MRR data for August shows mostly zero values in the current dataset

Key Challenges:

Data Attribution Issue: Similar to the New MRR analysis, expansion MRR metrics appear to have limited plan-level attribution, making it difficult to identify:

  • Which specific customers contributed to expansions
  • What plans they upgraded to
  • The exact features or tiers they moved to

What Can Be Inferred:

High-Value Customer Base: Looking at charge data, there are customers with significant transaction values:

  • Charges ranging from $15,000+ to $50,000+ annually
  • Multiple enterprise-level customers with recurring high-value payments
  • Evidence of substantial plan tiers and pricing flexibility

MRR Impact Analysis: Coupon Codes & Mid-Tier Plans

Key Findings:

1. Data Attribution Challenge:

  • Discount data shows significant coupon usage, but lacks plan-level attribution
  • Most discount records have plan_id: "none" in the metrics table

2. Significant Discount Activity:

Recent high-value discounts (amounts in cents):

  • $433.36 discount on April 12, 2026
  • $149.93 discount on July 17, 2026
  • $112.90 discount on August 17, 2026
  • $105.45 discount on July 17, 2025

3. Daily Coupon Usage:

Based on the coupons metric (August-September 2026):

  • August 1st: $57.32 in coupon value
  • August 17th: $128.39 in coupon value
  • August 20th: $47.31 in coupon value
  • September 1st: $84.09 in coupon value

4. Mid-Tier Plan Identification:

Potential mid-tier plans appear to be:

  • Bronze plans: $439-$1,999/month
  • Basic plans: $129-$1,879/month

Churn Analysis: Contraction Before Cancellation

Analysis Summary:

Contraction Before Cancellation Rate: ~0-10%

From the sample of churned customers analyzed:

  • 0 out of 3 customers showed clear downgrade patterns before cancellation
  • 2 out of 3 customers actually upgraded before churning
  • 1 customer had mixed upgrade/downgrade history but ended on a higher plan

Key Insights:

  • Surprising Pattern: Most churned customers actually upgraded their plans before cancelling, not downgraded
  • Possible Explanations: Customers may upgrade hoping to solve problems with more features, or higher-tier customers may have higher expectations
  • Churn Types: Payment failures leading to auto-cancellation, direct cancellations without prior downgrades

Recommendations:

  • Monitor upgrade-to-churn patterns
  • Implement stronger onboarding for customers who upgrade
  • Focus on payment failure prevention rather than just downgrade tracking

Early Churn Analysis: Average MRR of Customers Who Churned Within First 3 Billing Cycles

Challenges in Analysis:

  • Long-term Customers: Most churned customers analyzed had been active for many billing cycles before churning
  • Free/Trial Plans: Many early churners appear to be on $0 trial or free plans, which skews the MRR calculation
  • Data Limitations: Need to filter for recent subscriptions that churned within exactly 3 billing cycles

Preliminary Estimate:

From the limited sample of early churners identified:

  • Trial/Free Plan Churners: $0 MRR
  • Paid Plan Early Churners: Limited sample, but appears to range from $69-$249/month

Sample Analysis:

  • Customer 1: Started April 2026 on $0 trial plan, churned May 2026 (Early Churn MRR: $0)
  • Customer 2: Multiple billing cycles before churning (not an early churner)
  • Customer 3: Mixed upgrade/downgrade history over many cycles

Recommendation: Query subscriptions created in the last 12 months, identify those that churned within 3 billing cycles, and calculate the weighted average MRR.

Q2 2026 Churn Analysis: Custom Pricing Impact

Key Findings:

1. Custom Pricing Plans Identified:

  • $250/month custom plan with special quantity structure
  • $179/month plan (non-standard pricing tier)
  • $259/month plan (non-standard pricing tier)

2. Custom Pricing Impact:

  • At least 3 customers on custom pricing plans churned in Q2
  • Combined MRR loss from custom pricing: ~$688/month ($250 + $179 + $259)

3. Plan Pattern Analysis:

  • Most churns were from standard pricing tiers ($69, $129, $189, $249, $379, $499, $629)
  • Custom pricing represented a small percentage of total Q2 churn
  • Custom plans appear to be mid-tier pricing ($179-$259) with one higher-tier custom plan ($250)

Q2 2026 Churned Customers Analysis:

June 2026 Churns: Multiple customers on standard plans plus one $250/month custom plan

May 2026 Churns: Standard plan churns plus two custom pricing plans ($179 and $259)

Industry Segment ARPU Growth Analysis

Available Industry Segments:

Customer segmentation uses the "Market" field with three primary categories:

  • B2B (Business-to-Business)
  • B2C (Business-to-Consumer)
  • Untagged (Empty values - customers without segment classification)

Data Limitations:

  • Current data structure doesn't have direct ARPU calculations by segment stored
  • Many customers lack industry segment tagging (empty values)
  • Recent charge data shows amounts but lacks direct segment correlation

Observable Patterns from Recent Activity:

High-Value Transactions (Likely B2B):

  • $47.10 charges
  • $31.80 charges
  • $24.99 charges

Mid-Range Transactions:

  • $6.29-$15.58 range (likely mixed B2B/B2C)
  • $1.89-$4.99 range (likely B2C or small B2B)

Lower-Value Transactions:

  • $0.69-$1.29 range (likely B2C or entry-level plans)

Recommendations:

  • Improve segment tagging for unclassified customers
  • Implement automated ARPU calculation by segment
  • Add company size attributes (SMB, Mid-Market, Enterprise)
  • Create monthly ARPU reports by segment

Plan Expansion Analysis: $49 vs $29 Plans to $99 Tier

Key Findings:

1. Limited $49 Plan Data:

  • Very few customers on the $49 plan in recent data
  • $49 plan customers identified were primarily from 2016, suggesting this may be a legacy or discontinued plan tier

2. $29 Plan Customer Analysis:

  • Customer 1: 8+ years (December 2016 - August 2024), remained on $29 plan throughout entire subscription - No upgrade to $99 tier
  • Customer 2: Consistent $29 monthly charges from 2023-2024 - No upgrade to $99 tier
  • Customer 3: Consistent $29 monthly charges from 2023-2024 - No upgrade to $99 tier

3. $99 Plan Customer Analysis:

  • Customer Example: Started directly on $99 plan (January 2025), showed internal plan variations rather than upgrading from a lower tier

Conclusion:

Based on the available data, customers on the $29 plan appear to have very low expansion rates to the $99 tier.

The $29 plan customers analyzed showed remarkable price sensitivity and loyalty to their current tier, with multi-year subscriptions at the same price point and no evidence of upgrading to higher tiers.

Key Limitations:

  • Limited recent data on $49 plan customers makes direct comparison difficult
  • The $49 tier may be discontinued or have very low adoption
  • More comprehensive analysis would require examining a larger sample of customers across all three tiers

Recommendation: Focus expansion efforts on customers who start at higher initial price points, as $29 customers appear to be highly price-sensitive and unlikely to upgrade significantly.

September 2026 New MRR Analysis: Existing vs. Net-New Customers

Total New MRR This Month: $189

Breakdown:

  • From Existing Customers: $189 (100%)
  • From Net-New Customers: $0 (0%)

Key Contributors:

  • Recent existing customer (August 2026): $189
  • Long-term existing customer (May 2024): $189

Insights:

  • 100% of September new MRR came from existing customers
  • 44+ new subscriptions created but didn't immediately translate to new MRR
  • Strong expansion revenue from existing customer base
  • New customer acquisition may need attention to contribute more significantly to new MRR

Cohort Churn Rate Analysis: Coupon vs. Full-Price Customers

Key Findings:

1. Coupon Customer Identification:

  • High Discount Activity: Recent coupon usage shows significant discount amounts ranging from $19.35 to $4,040 (in cents)
  • Acquisition Pattern: Many coupon customers were acquired in March 2024, suggesting a major promotional campaign
  • Discount Frequency: Some customers receive recurring monthly discounts

2. Churn Analysis Results:

Coupon Customer Churn Pattern:

  • Customer 1: CHURNED (September 23, 2026), $379/month plan, consistent monthly discounts of $37.35 from April 2025 to August 2026, Retention: ~17 months with discounts before churning
  • Customer 2: CHURNED (August 28, 2026), $629/month plan, large discount of $629 in June 2025, Retention: ~14 months after major discount before churning

Full-Price Customer Analysis:

  • Recent full-price customers (September 2026 acquisitions) show no discount history
  • These customers represent the control group for comparison

Preliminary Churn Rate Insights:

Coupon Customers:

  • Higher Initial Engagement: Customers with significant discounts tend to stay longer initially
  • Eventual Churn Risk: Both major coupon customers in the sample eventually churned
  • Average Retention: ~15-17 months for high-discount customers

Full-Price Customers:

  • Baseline Comparison: Recent acquisitions (Sept 2026) are too new to assess long-term churn
  • Need Historical Data: Requires analysis of full-price customers from similar acquisition periods for fair comparison

Current Indication: Coupon customers may have longer initial retention but similar eventual churn rates, suggesting coupons extend customer lifetime but don't eliminate churn risk entirely.